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posted on 25 February 2016

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Contraction Worsens in February 2016

Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released to date for January, all four are in contraction.

There were no market expectations reported from Bloomberg - and the reported value was -12. Any value below zero is contraction.

z kansas_man.PNG

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the February Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined further.

"Factories reported a slightly larger decline in February than in previous months," said Wilkerson. "Energy-related firms generally had a negative outlook, but firms overall remained slightly optimistic about future factory activity."

TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SUMMARY

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined further in February, while producers' expectations for future activity remained slightly positive. Price indexes were mixed, but most remained in negative territory.

The month-over-month composite index was -12 in February, its lowest level since 2009, down from -9 in January and December (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The decline came from both durable and nondurable goods factories, particularly for food and beverage, chemical, metals, and plastics production. Activity was fairly weak across District states, in part due to continued low commodity prices for agriculture and energy. Most month-over-month indexes decreased from the previous month. The production index was unchanged, while the shipments and employment indexes decreased further. The new orders and order backlog indexes rose slightly but still remained negative. The raw materials inventory fell from -2 to -16, and the finished goods inventory index also dropped.

Year-over-year factory indexes were mostly lower than the previous month. The composite year-over-year index decreased from -13 to -20, and the production, shipments, and new orders indexes also moved further into negative territory. The employment index dropped from -15 to -26, its lowest level in nearly six years. The new orders for exports index fell from -4 to -13, while the capital expenditures index remained stable but weak. The raw materials inventory index moved slightly lower, while the finished goods inventory index was unchanged.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen



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