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posted on 19 February 2016

12 February 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Continues To Worsen

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - continued its decline in negative territory. This index now spent 29 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI also released its coincident index this week.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Falls

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index falls to 128.6 from 130.0. The growth rate decreases to -3.1% from -2.6%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective please read Grand Experiments That Are Too Big to Fail.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. The January number (issued in February) shows slight economic improvement in January.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 102.7 from an unrevised 102.3 reading in December, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG ticked up in January, but remains far below its 2014 highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while having crept up since last spring, remain fairly subdued."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The December's economy's rate of growth (released in January) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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