econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 18 February 2016

Rail Week Ending 13 February 2016: Contracting But Insignificant Short Term Improvement

Week 6 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) only marginally declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic continued to improve year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements but the weekly railcar counts remained in contraction.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average -5.7 % unchanged accelerating
13 week rolling average -8.8 % decelerating unchanged
52 week rolling average -3.5 % decelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Feb. 13, 2016.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 505,148 carloads and intermodal units, down 3.8 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending Feb. 13 were 244,334 carloads, down 15.4 percent compared with the same week in 2015, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 260,814 containers and trailers, up 10.4 percent compared to 2015.

Two of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2015. They were miscellaneous carloads, up 27.4 percent to 9,406 carloads; and motor vehicles and parts, up 12.6 percent to 18,711 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2015 included coal, down 32.5 percent to 75,249 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, down 23.4 percent to 11,303 carloads; and metallic ores and metals, down 15.4 percent to 19,196 carloads.

For the first 6 weeks of 2016, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 1,454,056 carloads, down 15.6 percent from the same point last year; and 1,563,265 intermodal units, up 5.7 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 6 weeks of 2016 was 3,017,321 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 5.8 percent compared to last year.

Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week is 30.1 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015. The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

This Week Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -15.4% +10.4 % -3.8 %
Ignoring coal and grain -7.8 %
Year Cumulative to Date -15.6% +5.7 % -5.8 %

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart:

z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended February 6, 2016

  • Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 12.9 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 5.4% lower than last week's estimate and 30.1% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015
  • East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.1 mmst
  • West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 7.8 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 69.6 mmst, 32.1% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2015

Steven Hansen



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
The Expected Effects of Petitions to Improve the Monetary System
Energy and Falling Productivity
News Blog
Clinton Wins Round One
Why Alzheimer's Research Is Failing To Hit Treatment Targets
Voters Still Distrust Both Presidential Candidates
What We Read Today 27 September 2016
How To Get People To Exercise
September 2016 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Now At Highest Level Since the Great Recession
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Remains In Contraction In September 2016.
September 2016 Chemical Activity Barometer Continues to Signal Improving Economic Growth
Case-Shiller Home Price Index July 2016 Year-over-Year Rate of Growth Decelerates
Between Geopolitics And Technology
Infographic Of The Day: See Every Single Part Inside An IPhone
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mixed, Europa Water Plumes, All About The Debate, Putin Reacts To Debate, Oblivious Students, India Rocket Success, China Profits Surge And More
September 26, 2016 Weather and Climate Report - Not Quite the Camino Real
Investing Blog
Banks Of Absurdity
Investing.com Technical Summary 27 September 2016
Opinion Blog
Why All Banks Should Be Federally Owned
Housing Inflation- A Simple Case Of Supply And Demand Exacerbated By Low Rates
Precious Metals Blog
War On Cash Turns To $20, $50, And $100 Bills
Live Markets
27Sep2016 Market Close: US Major Indexes Closed Higher As Commodities Fell, WTI Crude Slipped Three Percent
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved