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posted on 12 February 2016

05 February 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Continues Its Descent

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - declined marginally and remains in negative territory. This index now spent 28 consecutive weeks in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 130.0 from 129.6. The growth rate slipped to -2.6% from -2.3%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective please read Grand Experiments That Are Too Big to Fail.


For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 102.7 from an unrevised 102.3 reading in December, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG ticked up in January, but remains far below its 2014 highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while having crept up since last spring, remain fairly subdued."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The December's economy's rate of growth (released in January) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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