econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 29 January 2016

Advance Estimate 4Q2015 GDP Growth at 0.7%. Economic Growth Continues to Slow.

Written by Doug Short and Steven Hansen

The advance estimate of fourth quarter 2015 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a positive 0.7 %. This is a significant decline from the previous quarter's 2.0 % if one looks at quarter-over-quarter headline growth. However, year-over-year growth declined so one could say economic growth was mixed. There are significant "buts" relative to this advance GDP estimate (see below). The major reasons for the decline in GDP growth were personal consumption for goods, fixed investment, and inventories.

The market expected:

Seasonally Adjusted Quarter-over-Quarter Change at annual rate Consensus Range Consensus Actual
Real GDP 0.0 % to 2.3 % 0.9 % +0.7 %
GDP price index 0.2 % to 1.3 % 0.9 % +0.8 %

One must consider:

  • This advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision. (See caveats below.) Please note that historically advance estimates have turned out to be little more than wild guesses.
  • Headline GDP is calculated by annualizing one quarter's data against the previous quarters data (and the previous quarter was relatively strong in this instance). A better method would be to look at growth compared to the same quarter one year ago. For 4Q2015, the year-over-year growth is 1.8 % - significantly down from 3Q2015's 2.1 % year-over-year growth. So one might say that GDP decelerated 0.3 % from the previous quarter.

Real GDP Expressed As Year-over-Year Change

Real GDP is inflation adjusted and annualized - and Real GDP per capita remains on a general upward trend.

Real GDP per Capita

The table below compares the 3Q2015 third estimate of GDP (Table 1.1.2) with the advance estimate of 4Q2015 GDP which shows:

  • consumption for goods and services declined.
  • trade balance degraded
  • there was significant inventory change removing 0.45% from GDP
  • there was slower fixed investment growth
  • there was little change in government spending

The arrows in the table below highlight significant differences between 3Q2015 and 4Q2015 (green is good influence, and red is a negative influence).

[click on graphic below to enlarge]

What the BEA says about this advance estimate:

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Inflation continues to moderate as the "deflator" which adjusts the current value GDP to a "real" comparable value continues to moderate. The following compares the GDP deflator to the Consumer Price Index:

Overview Analysis:

Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was calculated annually. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percent change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.24% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 1.39 percent.

Note: The headline 0.7% GDP is 0.69% at two decimal places.

Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 14.7% below trend, the largest negative spread in the history of this series.

A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change.

Real GDP Year-over-Year

In summary, the Q4 GDP Advance Estimate of 0.7 percent was in line with mainstream estimates and well below the 2.0 percent Q3 Third Estimate.

Click to View

Caveats on the Use of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP is market value of all final goods and services produced within the USA where money is used in the transaction - and it is expressed as an annualized number. GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports), or GDP = C + I + G + (X - M). GDP counts monetary expenditures. It is designed to count value added so that goods are not counted over and over as they move through the manufacture - wholesale - retail chain.

The vernacular relating to the different GDP releases:

"Advance" estimates, based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available, "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The "latest" estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.

Consider that GDP includes the costs of suing your neighbor or McDonald's for hot coffee spilled in your crotch, plastic surgery or cancer treatment, buying a new aircraft carrier for the military, or even the replacement of your house if it burns down - yet little of these activities is real economic growth.

GDP does not include include home costs (other than the new home purchase price even though mortgaged up the kazoo), interest rates, bank charges, or the money spent buying anything used.

It does not measure wealth, disposable income, or employment.

In short, GDP does not measure the change of the economic environment for Joe Sixpack in 1970, and Joe Sixpack's kid, yet pundits continuously compare GDP across time periods.

Although there always will be some correlation between all economic pulse points, GDP does not measure the economic elements that directly impact the quality of life of its citizens.



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Many (But Not All) Dynamics Improving But Federal Tax Receipts Are Down
The Economic Future of The Berkshires - A Reconsideration
News Blog
After A Lackluster Outturn In 2016, Economic Activity Is Projected To Pick Up Pace In 2017 And 2018
Invading China, One Trade Dispute At A Time
Credit Market Arbitrage And Regulatory Leverage
Infographic Of The Day: The Trump Effect On Currencies
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mixed, Oil And Dollar Steady, Robots Are Coming, Trump Vows Ins. For All, May Goes For Hard Brexit, China Wants To Build US Infrastructure And More
January 16, 2017 Weather and Climate Report - Split Personality on Steroids
The World's Staggering Wealth Divide
FIFA World Cup Brand Worth More Than Ever
What Is Heart Failure? It's Not As Common A Cause Of Death As Reports Would Have Us Believe
Economic Growth, More Debt And More Employment
What We Read Today 16 January 2017
Why Doesn't Capital Always Flow To High-Growth Areas?
Trends In Arbitrage-Based Measures Of Bond Liquidity
Investing Blog
Market And Sector Analysis 16 January 2017
The Investment Potfolio
Opinion Blog
Be Prepared For A Violent Fed Reversal
Nature Of Debt Differs Between China, Japan And The U.S.
Precious Metals Blog
Gold's 2016 Gain Indicates A 19% Surge In 2017
Live Markets
16Jan2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Closed For MLK Holiday, European Markets Lower, Crude Prices Slip, Investors Await Serious Market Correction As Some Bearish Analysts Claim The Sky Is About To Fall
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved