posted on 26 December 2015
Truck shipments remain weak. One index is still in expansion year-over-year in November, whilst the other is in contraction.
The American Trucking Associations' (ATA) trucking index declined 0.9% in November, following an increase of 1.8% during October. The October figure was revised down from our press release on November 24. In November, the index equaled 134.3 (2000=100), down from 135.5 in October, and 1.1% below the all-time high of 135.8 reached in January 2015.
From ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
Compared with one year ago, seasonally adjusted tonnage increased 0.2 %.
Econintersect tries to validate data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry improved month-over-month (red line). Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted significantly.
FTR's Trucking Conditions Index Continues to Fall in October Ahead of Expected Improvements in 2016
CASS FREIGHT INDEX REPORT freight Shipments Index was stronger than expected - but still below 2014 levels.
At best, truck shipments are weak. At worst, they are contracting towards multi-year lows. Consider that online retailing is growing, and this is a contradictory sign.
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