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posted on 18 December 2015

11 December 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Had Insignificant Improvement But Remains In Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - insignificantly improved but remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its 18th week in negative territory. This week ECRI released its lagging and coincident indices - and the coincident growth index dropped to a 21 month low.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edges Down

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges down to 131.1 from 131.4. The growth rate ticks up to -0.6% from -0.7%.


To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Al Jazeera.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The November update (reported in December) shows the rate of economic growth has slowed. The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) ticked down to 169.8 in November from 169.9. The USCI year-over-year growth rate slipped to 2.7%, a 21-month low.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Inflation Gauge Slips

U.S. inflationary pressures were off in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 102.0 from an upwardly revised 102.4 reading in October, first reported as 102.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"While staying a little above its springtime low, the USFIG fell further below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures, which were already subdued, have softened slightly."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November's economy's rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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