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posted on 18 December 2015

Rail Week Ending 12 December 2015: Bad Data Continues And Marginally Worse Than Last Week

Week 49 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic returned to contraction year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements and weekly railcar counts continued deeply in contraction.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average -6.3 % accelerating decelerating
13 week rolling average -4.5 % accelerating decelerating
52 week rolling average -1.0 % decelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Dec. 12, 2015.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 544,975 carloads and intermodal units, down 8 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending Dec. 12 were 270,953 carloads, down 13.2 percent compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 274,022 containers and trailers, down 2.3 percent compared to 2014.

Two of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2014. They were miscellaneous carloads, up 39.5 percent to 10,764 carloads; and motor vehicles and parts, up 1.8 percent to 19,502 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2014 included metallic ores and metals, down 27.2 percent to 20,935 carloads; coal, down 22.3 percent to 92,934 carloads; and petroleum and petroleum products, down 21.5 percent to 13,417 carloads.

For the first 49 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 13,589,488 carloads, down 5.4 percent from the same point last year; and 13,075,037 intermodal units, up 1.7 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 49 weeks of 2015 was 26,664,525 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 2.1 percent compared to last year.

Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week is 21.4 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014. The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

This Week Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -13.2 % -2.3 % -8.0 %
Ignoring coal and grain -8.9 %
Year Cumulative to Date -5.4 % +1.7 % -2.1 %

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart:

z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended December 12, 2015

  • Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 16.1 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 0.1% higher than last week's estimate and 21.4% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014
  • East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 6.3 mmst
  • West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 9.8 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 855.4 mmst, 9.9% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2014

Steven Hansen



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