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posted on 11 December 2015

04 December 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Again Has Moderate Improvement But Remains In Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - improved but remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its 17th week in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 131.3 from 131.7. The growth rate edges up to -0.8% from -1.2%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in the latest interview on Bloomberg TV.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The October update (reported in November) shows the rate of economic growth is slower.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Inflation Gauge Slips

U.S. inflationary pressures were off in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge dipped to 102.0 from an upwardly revised 102.4 reading in October, first reported as 102.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"While staying a little above its springtime low, the USFIG fell further below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures, which were already subdued, have softened slightly."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The October's economy's rate of growth (released in November) showed an improving economy.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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