FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.

posted on 10 December 2015

December 2015 Livingston Survey: Forecasters Predict Steady Growth and Unemployment Rate Declines

from the Philadelphia Fed

The 25 participants in the December Livingston Survey predict fairly persistent output growth through the end of 2016. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, project that the economy's output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 2.1 percent for the second half of 2015.

They predict that the growth rate of economic output will be 2.5 percent (annual rate) in the first half of 2016 and 2.6 percent (annual rate) in the second half of 2016. The current projection for growth in the second half of 2015 is 1.0 percentage point lower than the projection from the survey of six months ago, while the forecast for the first half of 2016 is 0.4 percentage point lower.

The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will decline even further than estimated in the June 2015 survey. The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will be 4.9 percent in December 2015 and 4.8 percent in June 2016. The current projections for December 2015 and June 2016 are both down 0.2 percentage point from the last survey. The unemployment rate is projected to fall to 4.6 percent in December 2016.

On an annual-average over annual-average basis, CPI inflation is expected to be 0.1 percent in 2015 and 1.8 percent in 2016. The 2015 projection remains unchanged from the June survey, while the 2016 projection is down 0.3 percentage point. CPI inflation is expected to rise to 2.2 percent in 2017. PPI inflation is expected to be -3.2 percent in 2015 and 0.7 percent in 2016. The 2015 projections for PPI inflation remain unchanged from six months ago, although the projection for 2016 is 1.2 percentage points lower. PPI inflation is expected to rise to 2.4 percent in 2017.

The panelists have reduced their forecasts for the interest rates on three-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury bonds from six months ago. At the end of December 2015, the interest rate on three-month Treasury bills is predicted to be 0.23 percent, revised down from 0.59 percent in the survey six months ago. The forecasters predict that the three-month Treasury bill interest rate will be 0.68 percent at the end of June 2016 and 1.12 percent in December 2016. The rate is expected to rise to 2.03 percent in 2017. The interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is predicted to reach 2.30 percent at the end of December 2015, down from the previous estimate of 2.50 percent. Additionally, forecasters predict the 10-year rate will rise to 2.55 percent at the end of June 2016 and to 2.75 percent in December 2016, down from the previous projections of 2.84 percent and 3.00 percent, respectively. The forecasters expect the rate to rise to 3.09 percent in 2017.

The forecasters now predict that inflation (measured by the CPI) will grow 2.25 percent annually over the next 10 years, which is slightly higher than the forecast of 2.20 percent in the survey of six months ago. Real GDP growth is expected to average 2.25 percent over the next 10 years, lower than the projection of 2.50 percent from the previous survey.

The forecasters predict the S&P 500 index will finish 2015 at a level of 2090.0, a downward revision from the estimate of 2158.0 in the June 2015 survey. They also see stock prices increasing over the next two years, with the index rising to 2120.0 by the end of June 2016, to 2184.9 by the end of 2016, and then to 2298.0 by the end of 2017.


>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing

Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.

You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

Econintersect Economic Releases


Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF

The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.

Take a look at what is going on inside of
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Comments on Feyerabend’s ‘Against Method’, Part III
Taking a Wrench to Healthcare
News Blog
Inside The Machine: How Two Nobel Winners Taught Us How Companies Tick
Healthcare's Dirty Little Secret: Results From Many Clinical Trials Are Unreliable
The Cleveland Indian's Unique Use Of Andrew Miller
What We Read Today 26 October 2016
Why Do So Many Price Tags End In .99
September 2016 New Home Sales Improve.
Higher GDP Growth In The Long Run Requires Higher Productivity Growth
Quantum Encryption Is Secure Because Information Encoded In A Quantum Particle Is Destroyed As Soon As It Is Measured
The Stock Market Is Up, But Mutual Fund Investors Are Fleeing
Infographic Of The Day: Google's Hidden Games
Early Headlines: Asia Srocks Mostly Lower, Energy HY Bonds Surge, Google Fiber Cutback, Shadow Banks Dominate Mortgages, NATO Crowds Russia, Coffee Surges And More
Top 10 American Misconceptions about China (Version 3)
Documentary Of The Week: Job Buffers Are More Efficient Than Unemployment Buffers
Investing Blog
Cycle Transition Is In Question
This Or That?
Opinion Blog
What Triggers Collapse?
The Beer Goggles Stock Market
Precious Metals Blog
Inflation Surging As Platinum Signals Stock Market Decline
Live Markets
26Oct2016 Market Close: US Markets Close Lower, Boeing Shares Up, Texas Tea Stabilizes In Low 49's, Gold Falls To 1266, Friday's Fed Rate Change Promises To Be A Game Changer
Amazon Books & More

.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

Crowdfunding ....



Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved