econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 10 December 2015

Rail Week Ending 05 December 2015: The Good News Is That Is Week Is Not As Bad As Last Week

Week 48 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic squeaked into expansion year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements and weekly railcar counts continued deeply in contraction.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average -5.8 % accelerating accelerating
13 week rolling average -5.0 % decelerating accelerating
52 week rolling average -0.8 % accelerating accelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Dec. 5, 2015.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 542,050 carloads and intermodal units, down 6.6 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending Dec. 5 were 271,774 carloads, down 12.9 percent compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 270,276 containers and trailers, up 0.8 percent compared to 2014.

Two of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2014. They were miscellaneous carloads, up 15.5 percent to 9,063 carloads; and motor vehicles and parts, up 1.8 percent to 19,025 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2014 included metallic ores and metals, down 24.6 percent to 21,318 carloads; coal, down 21.8 percent to 92,820 carloads; and petroleum and petroleum products, down 14.4 percent to 13,589 carloads.

For the first 48 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 13,318,535 carloads, down 5.3 percent from the same point last year; and 12,801,015 intermodal units, up 1.8 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 48 weeks of 2015 was 26,119,550 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.9 percent compared to last year.

Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week is 21.9 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014. The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

This Week Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -12.9 % +0.8 % -6.6 %
Ignoring coal and grain -7.3 %
Year Cumulative to Date -5.3 % +1.8 % -1.9 %

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart:

z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended November 28, 2015:

  • Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 15.0 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 7.3% lower than last week's estimate and 21.9% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014
  • East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.9 mmst
  • West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 9.1 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 823.2 mmst, 9.4% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2014

Steven Hansen



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Are You Feeling the Economic Surge?
Big Mess in Italy
News Blog
Multiple Jobs Needed To Make Ends Meet
The Final Crisis Chronicle: The Panic Of 1907 And The Birth Of The Fed
Is There A Gender Wage Growth Gap?
Moving Averages Can Identify A Trade
Infographic Of The Day: Hobbies That Will Make You Money
Earnings And Economic Reports: Week Starting 05 December 2016
Early Headlines: Green Pty Cancels - Then Appeals PA Recount, IRS Serves Summons On Bitcoin Co, Most Mfg Jobs Lost To Automation, 2017 US Hosing Outlook And More
The Smartphone Market Is Not A Two-Horse Race
Italy's Referendum: What's At Stake And What You Need To Know
There Were Over A Million Casualties At The Somme
The Best Countries In The World
What We Read Today 03 December 2016 - Public Edition
Big Mac Index In Its 30th Year
Investing Blog
How To Invest When The Fed Destroys Capitalism
Technical Thoughts: Manage Risk
Opinion Blog
Why Did Trump Win? A Different Perspective, Part 3
Jobs Without Disruptions Through Concordian Economics
Precious Metals Blog
Silver Prices Rebounded Today: Where They Are Headed
Live Markets
02Dec2016 Market Close: WTI Crude Climbed Back Up To Previous 51 Handle, US Dollar Index Trading At The100 Level, Oil Rig Count At 10-Month High
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved