econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 26 November 2015

Rail Week Ending 21 November 2015: Contraction Continues to Grow

Week 46 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic contracted year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements and weekly railcar counts continued in contraction. The 52 week rolling average contraction is continuing to grow.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average -6.2 % decelerating decelerating
13 week rolling average -3.3 % decelerating decelerating
52 week rolling average -0.4 % decelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Nov. 21, 2015.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 532,532 carloads and intermodal units, down 5.7 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending Nov. 21 were 267,830 carloads, down 9.4 percent compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 264,702 containers and trailers, down 1.7 percent compared to 2014.

Four of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2014. They included miscellaneous carloads, up 12.3 percent to 9,597 carloads; motor vehicles and parts, up 5.9 percent to 19,105 carloads; and nonmetallic minerals, up 2.1 percent to 35,420 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2014 included petroleum and petroleum products, down 25.8 percent to 11,894 carloads; metallic ores and metals, down 22.7 percent to 19,782 carloads; and coal, down 16.8 percent to 92,998 carloads.

For the first 46 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 12,815,842 carloads, down 4.9 percent from the same point last year; and 12,311,269 intermodal units, up 1.9 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 46 weeks of 2015 was 25,127,111 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.7 percent compared to last year.

Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week is 13.6 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014. The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

This Week Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -9.4 % -1.7 % -5.7 %
Ignoring coal and grain -5.5 %
Year Cumulative to Date -4.9 % +1.9 % -1.7 %

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart:

z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended November 14, 2015:

  • Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 16.5 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 0.3% higher than last week's estimate and 13.6% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014
  • East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 6.5 mmst
  • West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 10.0 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 792.1 mmst, 9.0% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2014

Steven Hansen



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
The Problem With Obamacare Is That It Did Little To Reduce Overall Healthcare Spending
Joan Robinson’s Critique of Marginal Utility Theory
News Blog
Working From Home Is Still Rare In The United States
What We Read Today 10 December 2016
The Last Bucket Catch
Joe Sixpack's Situation in 3Q2016: The Average Joe Is Better Off
Why Are Some People More Delinquent On Loans Than Others? - Part 1
Gravity Returns To San Francisco Housing Market
Violent Bond Selloff: An Eye-Opening Perspective
Infographic Of The Day: Identity Theft: You Should Be Worried
Early Headlines: Russia Hacked GOP, Trump To Drain Energy 'Swamp'?, New Sec'y Of State Candidate, India IP Shrinks, India Has World's New Largest Solar Plant , China GDP Hides Volatility And More
Most Coup Attempts In Recent Years Have Failed
The Global Cost Of Diabetes
The Universities Churning Out The Most Billionaires
Five Amazing Ways Plants Have Created New Technologies
Investing Blog
The New Art Of Utility Investing
Investing,com Weekly Wrap-up 09 December 2016
Opinion Blog
Trickle-down Economics, Trump Edition
Looking At Everything: Trump's $1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan
Precious Metals Blog
Silver Prices Rebounded Today: Where They Are Headed
Live Markets
09Dec2016 Market Close: Wall Street Closes On A New High, Trump Sugar High, Crude Prices Testing Resistance, US Dollar Melts Higher
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved