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posted on 26 November 2015

20 November 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Again Improved But Remains In Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - improved but remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its 15th week in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

US Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 131.1 from 131.0. The growth rate increases to -2.0% from -2.6%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to listen to Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The October update (reported in November) shows the rate of economic growth is slower.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 102.1 from an upwardly revised 101.7 reading in September, first reported as 101.0, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"While it remains above March's 16-month low, the USFIG is well below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still subdued."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The October's economy's rate of growth (released in November) showed an improving economy.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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