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posted on 20 November 2015

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Improves to Barely in Expansion in November 2015

Of the three regional manufacturing surveys released to date for November, one is in contraction whilst two are barely in expansion..

There were no market expectations reported from Bloomberg - and the reported value was +1. Any value below zero is contraction.

z kansas_man.PNG

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the November Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity was largely flat, although expectations for future activity improved considerably.

"We saw our composite index move just slightly into positive territory for the first time since February, as some segments of durable manufacturing improved even as activity in our energy states remained sluggish," said Wilkerson.


Tenth District manufacturing activity was largely flat in November, although expectations for future activity improved considerably from the previous few months. Most price indexes edged back down after rising slightly last month.

The month-over-month composite index was 1 in November, up from -1 in October and -8 in September (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Most of the modest improvement came from durable goods activity, particularly for aircraft, computer and electronic equipment production. Nondurable goods activity eased somewhat due to weaker chemicals and plastics production, but still remained positive overall. Other month-over-month indexes were mixed. The production index was basically unchanged, while the new orders, order backlog, and employment indexes fell moderately. In contrast, the shipments index increased from -2 to 5, and the new orders for exports index moved into positive territory for the first time this year. The raw materials inventory index jumped from -12 to 3, while the finished goods inventory index was basically unchanged.

Most year-over-year factory indexes edged up in November, but stayed in negative territory. The composite year-overyear index improved from -7 to -5, and the shipments, new orders and order backlog indexes also moved slightly higher but remained negative. The production and employment indexes fell further, while the new orders for export index was mostly stable. Both inventory indexes increased moderately from the previous month.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen

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