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posted on 12 November 2015

Rail Week Ending 07 November 2015: Now 52 Week Rolling Average Is In Contraction

Week 44 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) and monthly total rail traffic (from same month one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic contracted year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements. and weekly railcar counts continued in contraction. October 2015 is down 4.3% over October 2014. Now the year-over-year rolling average is below than the year-over-year rolling average of one year ago

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average -5.0 % decelerating decelerating
13 week rolling average -2.6 % decelerating decelerating
52 week rolling average -0.2 % decelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Nov. 7, 2015.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 539,165 carloads and intermodal units, down 5.2 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending Nov. 7 were 272,063 carloads, down 8.7 percent compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 267,102 containers and trailers, down 1.5 percent compared to 2014.

Four of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2014. They included: miscellaneous carloads, up 24.1 percent to 9,862; motor vehicles and parts, up 6 percent to 17,877; and grain, up 5.2 percent to 23,428 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2014 included: petroleum and petroleum products, down 19.7 percent to 12,999 carloads; metallic ores and metals, down 18 percent to 20,574 carloads; and coal, down 16 percent to 94,974 carloads.

For the first 44 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 12,277,219 carloads, down 4.7 percent from the same point last year; and 11,773,679 intermodal units, up 2 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 44 weeks of 2015 was 24,050,898 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.5 percent compared to last year.

Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week is 13.5 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014. The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

This Week Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -8.7 % -1.5 % -5.2 %
Ignoring coal and grain -5.9 %
Year Cumulative to Date -4.7 % +2.0 % -1.5 %

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart:

z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended October 31, 2015:

  • Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 16.6 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 4.9% lower than last week's estimate and 13.5% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014
  • East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 6.5 mmst
  • West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 10.1 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 759.1 mmst, 8.8% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2014

Steven Hansen



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