posted on 09 November 2015
October 2015 Conference Board Employment Index Suggests No Significant Slowdown in Job Growth Expected through 1Q2016
Written by Steven Hansen
The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index - which forecasts employment for the next 6 months - improved, but the rate of growth declined relative to last month. Consider that this projected growth is six months from now.
Econintersect is forecasting marginally improving jobs growth six months from now.
From the Conference Board:
To add context to this index, the following graph compares BLS non-farm payrolls, the Econintersect Employment Index, and The Conference Board ETI. Econintersect uses non-labor and mostly non-monetary economic pulse points in constructing its index, while The Conference Board uses mostly elements of employment data.
Comparing BLS Non-Farm Employment YoY Improvement (blue line, left axis) with Econintersect Employment Index YoY Improvement (red line, left axis) and The Conference Board ETI YoY Improvement (yellow line, right axis)
The graph above offsets the Conference Board ETI by 5 months. Note that both the Conference Board and the Econintersect indices are showing a marginally improving rate of growth.
Caveats on the Employment Trends Index
According to the Conference Board:
Unfortunately many of these indices are not accurate in real time being subject to at times significant backward revision.
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