econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 05 November 2015

31 October 2015 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Degrades But Remains Very Low Historically

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

The market (from Bloomberg) was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 256 K to 270 K (consensus 262,000) vs the 276,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 259,250 (reported last week as 259,250) to 262,750. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 7.1 % lower (degradatopm from the 7.8 % for last week) than they were in this same week in 2014.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line). 2015 (violet line)

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion - see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending October 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 276,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 260,000. The 4-week moving average was 262,750, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 259,250. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.6 percent for the week ending October 24, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 24 was 2,163,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 2,000 from 2,144,000 to 2,146,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,161,500, a decrease of 11,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since November 11, 2000 when it was 2,119,750. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,750 from 2,174,750 to 2,173,000.

Steven Hansen



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Is Free Trade Harming the Economy?
Bank of England Endorses Post-Keynesian Endogenous Money Theory
News Blog
Most Read Articles Last Week Ending 18 February
Living Through The Greek Crisis: An Anthropologist Reports From Thessaly
ITunes Still Popular Among U.S. Music Lovers
President Trump, You Need A Lesson In Autism - Here It Is
Defense Budgets Are Surging In The Baltic States
What We Read Today 19 February 2017
Half Of Small Businesses Say Regulations Are A Problem
Historical Photos In Color
Total Household Debt Nears 2008 Peak But Debt Picture Looks Much Different
Parental Proximity And The Earnings Consequences Of Job Loss
The Evolution Of Home Equity Ownership - Part Two Of Five
How To Easily ID Support And Resistance On Your Charts
Infographic Of The Day: Hollywood Vs. Real Life: How Realistic Are Romantic Comedies
Investing Blog
Bulls Keep Running, But . . .
The Week Ahead: Trump And The Business Cycle
Opinion Blog
Charity Is Not How We Solve Poverty
At A Turning Point In US History, Shepard Smith Denounces Trump
Precious Metals Blog
The Best Gold Stock To Buy Right Now
Live Markets
17Feb2017 Market Close: US Markets Close In The Green Surprising The Bearish Analysts, Monday Markets Will Be Closed For Presidents Day Holiday
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved