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posted on 26 October 2015

October 2015 Texas Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing Activity Remains in Expansion.

Of the four Federal Reserve districts which have released their October manufacturing surveys - three are in contraction except the Dallas Manufacturinng Outlook which is in expansion. A complete summary follows.

There market expections (from Bloomberg) were -7.0 to -5.0 (consensus -6.0) versus 4.8 actual. From the Dallas Fed:

Texas factory activity increased in October after nine months of flat or declining output, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose to 4.8, marking the first month of output growth this year.

Some other indexes of current manufacturing activity also reflected growth in October, but the survey's demand measures remained in negative territory. The new orders index posted a third negative reading in a row and fell three points to -7.6. The growth rate of orders index has been negative for 12 months and moved down to -7.7 in October. Meanwhile, thecapacity utilization index moved up from 4.9 to 8.6, and the shipments index rose from 0.9 to 6.4.

Perceptions of broader business conditions remained weak in October. The general business activity index, which has been negative all year, fell 3 points to -12.7. The company outlook index remained negative for a third consecutive month but edged up to -4.1.

Labor market indicators reflected a stabilization in October. The employment index moved up to zero, indicating no change in headcounts after five months of declines. The hours worked index rose nearly 10 points to -1.7, suggesting a much smaller decline in workweek length than last month.

The survey's price measures have been quite weak this year, and the trend continued in October. The raw materials prices index was -1.2 this month, suggesting a slight decline in input costs. The finished goods prices index came in at -9.5,posting its 10th negative reading in a row. Meanwhile, the wages and benefits index stayed strong and edged up to 17.9.

Expectations regarding future business conditions remained positive in October. The index of future general business activity held fairly steady at 4.1, and the index of future company outlook edged up to 9.8. Indexes for future manufacturing activity moved up and remained strongly positive.

Source: Dallas Fed

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

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