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posted on 23 October 2015

16 October 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Declines Again and Remains In Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - declined and remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its tenth week in negative territory. Also discussed below is the coincident and lagging index which is in decline.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 130.0 from 128.7. The growth rate slips to -2.7% from -2.2%.


To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The September update (reported in October) shows the rate of economic growth is slower.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Inflation Gauge Slips

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 101.0 from an unrevised August 101.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"While staying above March's 16-month low, the USFIG is well below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures continue to be quite muted."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The September's economy's rate of growth (released in October) showed a slower economy.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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