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posted on 09 October 2015

02 October 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improves But Remains In Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - again improved but remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its eighth week in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Rises

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index rises to 132.5 from 130.7. The growth rate increases to -1.1% from -1.7%.



To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to listen Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The August update (reported in September) shows the rate of economic growth is marginally slower.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Inflation Gauge Slips

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 101.0 from an unrevised August 101.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"While staying above March's 16-month low, the USFIG is well below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures continue to be quite muted."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August's economy's rate of growth (released in September) showed a slightly slower economy.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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