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posted on 25 September 2015

18 September 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improves Insignificantly But Remains In Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - improved insignificantly but remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its sixth week in negative territory.ECRI released their concident index this week and is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

US Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 132.1 from 131.1. The growth rate increases to -1.9% from -2.2%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The August update (reported in September) shows the rate of economic growth is marginally slower.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.9 from an unrevised July 101.2 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"While rising further above March's 16-month low, the USFIG remains well below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still fairly subdued."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August's economy's rate of growth (released in September) showed a slightly slower economy.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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