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posted on 25 September 2015

Rail Week Ending 19 September 2015: Year-over-Year Trends Continue to Degrade

Week 37 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic insignificantly expanded year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements. but weekly railcar counts continued in contraction. This cannot be a positive data point for the USA economically.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average -1.1 % accelerating decelerating
13 week rolling average -1.5 % accelerating decelerating
52 week rolling average +1.1 % decelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Sep. 19, 2015.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 566,734 carloads and intermodal units, down 2.5 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending Sep. 19 were 285,320 carloads, down 5.5 percent compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 281,414 containers and trailers, up 0.6 percent compared to 2014.

Four of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2014. They were grain, up 19 percent to 22,977 carloads; miscellaneous carloads, up 7.7 percent to 9,061; and motor vehicles and parts, up 5.8 percent to 18,695. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2014 included: metallic ores and metals, down 22.9 percent to 22,044 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, down 13.1 percent to 14,090 carloads; and coal, down 9.1 percent to 103,244 carloads.

For the first 37 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,304,555 carloads, down 4.4 percent from the same point last year; and 9,854,405 intermodal units, up 2.5 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 37 weeks of 2015 was 20,158,960 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.1 percent compared to last year.

Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week is 9.0 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014. The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

This Week Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -5.5 % +0.6 % -2.5 %
Ignoring coal and grain -6.3 %
Year Cumulative to Date -4.4 % +2.5 % -1.1 %

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart:

z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended September 19, 2015:

  • Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 17.8 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 2.5% higher than last week's estimate and 9.0% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2014
  • East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 7.1 mmst
  • West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 10.7 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 655.6 mmst, 8.4% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2014

Steven Hansen



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