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posted on 24 September 2015

Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Contraction Continues in September 2015

Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released to date for September, all are in contraction.

There were no market expectations reported from Bloomberg - and the reported value was -8. Any value below zero is contraction.

z kansas_man.PNG

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the August Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline moderately, similar to the pace of the previous few months.The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the September Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined at a similar pace as in previous months, while expectations for future activity dropped considerably.

"Survey respondents continued to blame a strong dollar and weak energy activity for declining factory activity", said Wilkerson. "This month their future outlook also weakened after holding steady in recent months."

TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SUMMARY

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined at a similar pace as in previous months, while expectations for future activity dropped considerably. Producers continued to cite weak oil and gas activity along with a strong dollar as key reasons for the sluggish activity. Most price indexes fell from the previous survey.

The month-over-month composite index was -8 in September, largely unchanged from -9 in August and -7 in July (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Both durable and nondurable goods production continued to decline, although some nondurable production such as plastics, chemicals, and food improved somewhat. Durable goods production remained weak, particularly for metals and machinery products. Production indexes continued to fall in nearly all District states. The majority of other month-over-month indexes edged slightly higher but still remained negative. The production index jumped from -16 to 1, and the new orders, shipments and order backlog indexes also improved somewhat but stayed negative. The employment index inched up from -10 to -7, and the new orders for exports index also moved slightly higher. The raw materials inventory index fell from -12 to -20, while the finished goods inventory index increased modestly

Year-over-year factory indexes were mixed but generally weaker than last month. The composite year-over-year index fell from -9 to -13, and the new orders and employment indexes also declined further. The capital expenditures index dropped from 8 to -3, its lowest level since January 2013. The production and shipments indexes both improved modestly but remained in negative territory. The raw materials inventory index decreased from -5 to -10, and the finished goods inventory index also decreased.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen



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