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posted on 18 September 2015

11 September 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Slides Insignificantly Deeper Into Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - slid insignificantly further into negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its fifth week in negative territory.ECRI released their concident index this week and is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

US Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 131.1 from 130.9. The growth rate slips to -2.2% from -2.0%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on Bloomberg.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The August update (reported in September) shows the rate of economic growth is marginally slower.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.9 from an unrevised July 101.2 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"While rising further above March's 16-month low, the USFIG remains well below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still fairly subdued."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July's economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed a slightly slower economy.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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