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posted on 11 September 2015

04 September 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Slides Marginally Deeper Into Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - slid further into negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its fourth week in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 131.0 from 130.6. The growth rate ticks down to -2.0% from -1.7%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in an interview on Bloomberg.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The July update (reported in August) shows the rate of economic growth is unchanged.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.9 from an unrevised July 101.2 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"While rising further above March's 16-month low, the USFIG remains well below its earlier highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still fairly subdued."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July's economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed a slightly slower economy.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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