posted on 31 August 2015
Of the five Federal Reserve districts which have released their August manufacturing surveys - one forecasts weak growth and four are in marginal contraction. A complete summary follows.
There market expections (from Bloomberg) were -8.0 to 0.5 (consensus 2.5) versus -0.8 actual. From the Dallas Fed:
Source: Dallas Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
z philly fed1.PNG
New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):
Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
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