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posted on 28 August 2015

21 August 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Sinks Slightly More Into Contraction

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now is in its second week in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 131.5 from 131.7. The growth rate slips to -0.9% from -0.4%.



For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The July update (reported in August) shows the rate of economic growth is unchanged.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.2 from an revised June 100.8 reading, first reported as 100.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"Having increased in July, the USFIG has risen further above March's 16-month low," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "However, it still stands well below its earlier highs, indicating that underlying inflation pressures are relatively restrained."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July's economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed a slightly slower economy.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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