posted on 26 August 2015
The year-over-year rate of growth of the US Coincident Index again declined marginally. A comparison of US Coincident Index, Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, Conference Board's Coincident Index, ECRI's USCI (U.S. Coincident Index), and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) coincident indicators follows. In general, most coincident indices are showing constant to declining rate of growth.
Economic indicators that coincide with economic movements are coincident indicators. Coincident indicators by definition do not provide a forward economic view. However, trends are valid until they are no longer valid, making the trend lines on the coincident indicators a forward forecasting tool. Econintersect's analysis of the coincident indices is that:
Excerpt from Philly Fed Report for the United States Coincident Index
[click graph below to enlarge]
z philly coincident.PNG
The Philly Fed produces this real time coincident indictor report based on six underlying indicators:
Per the Philly Fed:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is currently showing above average business conditions.
Conference Board's Coincident Index (red line):
The rate of growth of the Conference Board Coincident Index is decelerating..
ECRI's USCI (U.S. Coincident Index):
ECRi's Coincident Index's rate of growth is flat - neither accelerating or decelerating..
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
On the above graph, the CFNAI rate of growth is essentially on the historical trend rate of growth (zero line) - and far from recession territory (red line). One could say that the rate of growth is accelerating.
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