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posted on 25 August 2015

August 2015 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Rebounds Following Last Month's Surprise Fall

Written by Doug Short and Steven Hansen

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index improved to 101.5 from the 99.8 reported last month. The market expected (from Bloomberg) this index to come in at 90.8 to 96.8 (consensus 94.0) versus the 101.5 reported.

This index has now improved to a point that its level is now commenserate with periods of economic expansion. Note that this data is considered preliminary, and the cutoff for these results was 13 August 2015.

Here is an excerpt from The Conference Board:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in July, rebounded in August. The Index now stands at 101.5 (1985=100), up from 91.0 in July. The Present Situation Index increased from 104.0 last month to 115.1 in August, while the Expectations Index improved to 92.5 from 82.3 in July.

"Consumer confidence rebounded in August, following a sharp decline in July," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "Consumers' assessment of current conditions was considerably more upbeat, primarily due to a more favorable appraisal of the labor market. The uncertainty expressed last month about the short-term outlook has dissipated and consumers are once again feeling optimistic about the near future. Income expectations, however, were little improved."

Consumers' assessment of current conditions was considerably more favorable in August. Those saying business conditions are "good" decreased marginally from 23.4 percent to 23.2 percent. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" declined modestly from 18.2 percent to 17.6 percent. Consumers were considerably more positive about the job market. Those stating jobs are "plentiful" increased from 19.9 percent to 21.9 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" decreased from 27.4 percent to 21.9 percent.

Consumers' optimism about the short-term outlook also improved in August. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased slightly from 15.3 percent to 15.8 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen declined from 10.3 percent to 8.3 percent.

Consumers' outlook for the labor market was more upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased from 13.7 percent to 14.6 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased sharply from 19.0 percent to 13.6 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined moderately from 17.0 percent to 16.2 percent, while the proportion expecting a decline decreased from 11.3 percent to 10.0 percent.

Putting the Latest Number in Context

The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

On a percentile basis, the latest reading is at the 64% level of all the the monthly data points since June 1977. That's an increase from 44% previous month.

For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see my post on the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Here is the chart from that post.

And finally, let's take a look at the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the Financial Crisis.

Caveats in Using the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index

According to Bloomberg, the following caveat is provided when reviewing this series:

The underlying series for "planned purchases" (autos, homes, and major appliances) and "vacation intentions" showed larger increases in November 2010 levels, primarily due to sample design differences. These level shifts will be treated as breaks, and there will be no historial revisions. Neither series is included in or has any impact on the Consumer Confidence Index.The switch to the Census X-12 seasonal adjustment program produced only minor differences for both levels and month-to-month changes. As a result, The Conference Board did not find it necessary to undertake a full historical revision of the CCI time series based on the seasonal adjustment method. The restated data for November 2010, December 2010 and January 2011 (preliminary data) are based on the prior seasonal adjustment method. This index is an average of responses to the following questions: 1. Respondents appraisal of current business conditions. 2. Respondents expectations regarding business conditions six months hence. 3. Respondents appraisal of the current employment conditions. 4. Respondents expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence. 5. Respondents expectations regarding their total family income six months hence. For each of the 5 questions, there are three response options: Postive, Negative and Neutral. The response proportions to each question are seasonally adjusted. For each of the five question (above), the POSITIVE figure is divided by the sum of the POSITIVE and NEGATIVE to yield a proportion, which we call the 'RELATIVE' value. For each question, the average RELATIVE for the calendar year 1985 is then used as a benchmark to yield the INDEX value for that question. From 1967 to mid 1977 the CCI was bi-monthly.

This is a survey based on a probability-design random sample - conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. Surveys are a quantification of opinion rather than facts and data.

Observers of consumer sentiment polls should be aware they are imperfect quantifications of opinion. The question arises whether they are a rear view window or a forward looking indicator - or possibly a little of each. There is little question, however, that poor consumer sentiment corresponds to poor economic performance. Econintersect believes that consumer sentiment is mostly a coincident or lagging economic indicator.

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