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posted on 21 August 2015

07 August 2015: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Returns to the Dark Side - Economic Slowing Forecast.

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - just slipped back into negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory then 15 weeks in positive territory - and now returned to negative territory. ECRI released their coincident and lagging indicators for July this week.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edges Down

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges down to 131.7 from 132.2. The growth rate decreases to -0.4% from 0.1%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in an interview on Bloomberg.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The July update (reported in August) shows the rate of economic growth is unchanged.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.2 from an revised June 100.8 reading, first reported as 100.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"Having increased in July, the USFIG has risen further above March's 16-month low," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "However, it still stands well below its earlier highs, indicating that underlying inflation pressures are relatively restrained."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July's economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed a slightly slower economy.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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