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posted on 07 August 2015

31 July 2015: ECRI's WLI Continues In Positive Territory and Was Unchanged

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which had spent 28 weeks in negative territory - is now in its 14th week in positive territory and was unchanged this week.. ECRI released their inflation gauge today and is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slipped



The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 132.9 from 133.0. The growth rate unchanged at 0.2%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in an interview on Bloomberg.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The June update (reported in July) shows the rate of economic growth is slowing.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.2 from an revised June 100.8 reading, first reported as 100.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"Having increased in July, the USFIG has risen further above March's 16-month low," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "However, it still stands well below its earlier highs, indicating that underlying inflation pressures are relatively restrained."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The June's economy's rate of growth (released in July) returned to 2015 trend line after last month's decline.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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