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posted on 09 July 2015

04 July 2015 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Again Marginally Worsens

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 260,000 to 290,000 (consensus 276,000) vs the 297,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 275,000 (reported last week as 274,750) to 279,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 10.3% lower (worse than the 12.5% for last week) than they were in this same week in 2014.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line). 2015 (violet line)

Claim levels remain near 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion - see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 297,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 281,000 to 282,000. The 4-week moving average was 279,500, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 274,750 to 275,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7 percent for the week ending June 27, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 27 was 2,334,000, an increase of 69,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 1,000 from 2,264,000 to 2,265,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,268,250, an increase of 15,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 2,252,500 to 2,252,750.

Steven Hansen

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