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posted on 25 June 2015

Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Contraction "Better" in June 2015

Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released to date for June, two show weak manufacturing growth and two are in contraction.

There were no market expectations published from Bloomberg.

z kansas_man.PNG

TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY DECLINED AT A SLOWER PACE

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the June Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined at a slightly slower pace, and producers' expectations improved modestly.

"Regional factory conditions continued to decline in June, especially in energy-producing areas," said Wilkerson. "However, firms continue to expect some stabilization in the months ahead and for orders to rise by the end of the year."

TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SUMMARY

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined at a slightly slower pace than the previous month, and producers' expectations improved modestly. Most price indexes continued to rise, particularly for raw materials.

The month-over-month composite index was -9 in June, up from -13 in May but down from -7 in April (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Durable goods manufacturing improved slightly, although still negative, particularly for aircraft products and parts. However, nondurable goods production fell further broadly across all types of plants. Production fell in all District states except for Colorado, but continued to be most negative in energy-concentrated Oklahoma. The majority of other month-over-month indexes also remained negative. The production index contracted further from -13 to -21, its lowest level since February 2009, and the shipments index also decreased. On the other hand, although still negative, the new orders, order backlog, employment, and new orders for export indexes edged higher. The finished goods inventory index fell from 0 to -6, while the raw materials inventory index was basically unchanged.

Year-over-year factory indexes decreased from the previous month. The composite year-over-year index eased from -5 to -9, and the production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes all fell to their lowest levels since late 2009. The employment index fell back into negative territory after increasing last month, and the capital expenditures index inched lower while remaining positive. Both inventory indexes decreased from the previous month.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen



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