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posted on 10 June 2015

Livingston Survey: Higher Growth, Lower Unemployment Predicted for Second Half of 2015

from the Philadelphia Fed

The 28 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the second half of 2015 than they did in the December survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, project that the economy's output (real GDP) will rise at an annual rate of 0.9 percent during the first half of 2015 and 3.1 percent during the second half of 2015, followed by growth of 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the first half of 2016.

A downward revision for real GDP growth in the first half of 2015 is accompanied by an upward revision to growth in the second half of 2015, which is 0.4 percentage point higher than the projection in the survey of six months ago.

The forecasters see the unemployment rate falling in the second half of this year, and the projections have been revised downward. The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will be 5.4 percent in June 2015 and 5.1 percent in December 2015. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease further to 5.0 percent in June 2016. On an annualaverage basis, the unemployment rate is expected to be 5.3 percent in 2015 and 5.0 percent in 2016.

[click on image to read the entire report]


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