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posted on 02 June 2015

April 2015 CoreLogic Home Prices Year-over-Year Growth Rate Now 6.8%. Home Price Growth Continues to Accelerating.

Econintersect: CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) shows that home prices in the USA are up 6.8% year-over-year year-over-year (reported up 2.7% month-over-month). There is considerable backward revision in this index which makes monthly reporting problematic. CoreLogic HPI is used in the Federal Reserves's Flow of Funds to calculate the values of residential real estate.

This is the 38th consecutive month of year-over-year increase. Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic stated:

For the first four months of 2015, home sales were up 9 percent compared to the same period a year ago. One byproduct of the increased sales activity is rising house prices, and, as a result, month-over-month home prices are up almost 3 percent for April 2015 and up more than 6 percent from a year ago.

z corelogic2.PNG

Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic stated:

Old fashion supply and demand, fueled by historically low mortgage rates and improving consumer finances and confidence, continue to push home prices up. We expect continued price appreciation throughout 2015 and into next year. Over the longer term, household formation, up by more than one million over the past year alone, will drive down vacancy rates and create tighter housing markets in many metropolitan areas. This should provide the necessary underpinning for rising prices for the foreseeable future.

z corelogic3.PNG

Comparison of Home Price Indices - Case-Shiller 3 Month Average (blue line, left axis), CoreLogic (green line, left axis) and National Association of Realtors (red line, right axis)

z existing3.PNG

The way to understand the dynamics of home prices is to watch the direction of the rate of change - and not necessarily whether the prices are getting better or worse. Home prices are improving - and the rate of growth is now marginally improving after almost a year of declining growth rate.

Year-over-Year Price Change Home Price Indices - Case-Shiller 3 Month Average (blue bar), CoreLogic (yellow bar) and National Association of Realtors (red bar)

z existing5.PNG

Caveats Relating to Home Price Indices

There is no such thing as an "accurate" home price index. CoreLogic HPI is a repeat sales type index which should not be skewed by changes in the mix of home sales. For more information, please read: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/research-rap/2014/house-price-indexes.pdf

Steven Hansen

Source: CoreLogic



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