FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.

posted on 21 May 2015

Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Contraction Accelerates in May 2015

Of the three regional manufacturing surveys released to date for May, two show weak manufacturing growth one is in contraction.

The market was expecting a range between -2 to 1 (consensus -2) versus the actual at -13.

z kansas_man.PNG


Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Releases May Manufacturing Survey KANSAS CITY, Mo. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the May Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined more sharply in May and producers' expectations also fell, with both reaching their lowest levels since mid-2009.

"Factories in our region saw an even sharper decline in May than in March or April, as exports fell further and energy-related producers saw another drop in orders," said Wilkerson. "However, firms' overall still plan a modest increase in employment over the next six to twelve months."


Tenth District manufacturing activity declined more sharply in May than in previous months and producers' expectations also fell, with both reaching their lowest levels since mid-2009. However, most price indexes increased slightly, reversing a recent trend of decline. In a special question about hiring plans, the majority of firms indicated they were planning to either leave employment levels unchanged or increase them slightly over the next twelve months.

The month-over-month composite index was -13 in May, down from -7 in April and -4 in March (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The last time the composite index was lower was in April 2009. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The overall slower growth was mostly attributable to declines in durable goods manufacturing, including a continued decline in aircraft production and further weakness in metals and machinery. In addition, several nondurable goods plants also reported sluggish activity, particularly for plastics and food production. Production fell most sharply in energy-producing states like Oklahoma and New Mexico, but it was also down in most other District states. The majority of other month-over-month indexes also decreased from the previous month. The production index contracted from -2 to -13, and the shipments and new orders indexes also fell. The order backlog, employment, and new orders for exports indexes edged higher but still remained well below zero. The finished goods inventory index increased from -1 to 0, while the raw materials inventory index dropped into negative territory.

Year-over-year factory indexes were mixed but remained negative overall. The composite year-over-year index inched lower from -3 to -5, and the production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also became more negative. The employment index rose from -8 to 0, while the capital expenditures and new orders for exports indexes were basically unchanged. The finished goods inventory index increased from 4 to 6, but the raw materials inventory index eased slightly.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing

Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.

You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

Econintersect Economic Releases


Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF

The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.

Take a look at what is going on inside of
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Comments on Feyerabend’s ‘Against Method’, Part III
Taking a Wrench to Healthcare
News Blog
Early Headlines: Asia Srocks Mostly Lower, Energy HY Bonds Surge, Google Fiber Cutback, Shadow Banks Dominate Mortgages, NATO Crowds Russia, Coffee Surges And More
Top 10 American Misconceptions about China (Version 3)
Documentary Of The Week: Job Buffers Are More Efficient Than Unemployment Buffers
Typing Is The New Talking
Outsourcing Viewed As The Top Threat To U.S. Jobs
SOS, Extra Savings Needed For An Adequate Pension
Bob Dylan's Nobel Prize - And What Really Defines Literature
What We Read Today 25 October 2016
Baby Remarkably Survives Being Born With Heart Beating Outside Her Chest
October 2016 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Declines
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Remains In Contraction In October 2016.
October 2016 Chemical Activity Barometer Continues to Signal Improving Economic Growth
Case-Shiller Home Price Index August 2016 Year-over-Year Rate of Growth Marginally Improves
Investing Blog
This Or That? Technical Report 25 October 2016
Opinion Blog
What Triggers Collapse?
The Beer Goggles Stock Market
Precious Metals Blog
Inflation Surging As Platinum Signals Stock Market Decline
Live Markets
25Oct2016 Market Close: US Stock Market Indexes Closed Down Fractionally, Investors Remain Concerned With Friday's Fed Rate Change, Crude And US Dollar Down, Gold Up
Amazon Books & More

.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

Crowdfunding ....



Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved