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posted on 15 May 2015

08 May 2015: ECRI's WLI Into Positive Territory for the Second Week in a Row

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which has spent 28 weeks in negative territory - is now into positive territory for the second week. It is now forecasting better growth later this year.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth). ECRI is not saying that this indicator in negative territory is a sign of economic contraction:

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 134.6 from 134.2. The growth rate rose to 1.2% from 0.5%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:


ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The March update (reported in April) shows the rate of economic growth is now slowing.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.1 from a revised March 100.2 reading, first reported as 100.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"With the USFIG moving up, underlying inflation pressures have risen a little," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February's economy's rate of growth (released in March) is essentially unchanged.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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