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posted on 08 May 2015

01 May 2015: ECRI's WLI Emerges Into Positive Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which has spent 28 weeks in negative territory - has now passed into positive territory and is now forecasting positive growth later this year. ECRI released their inflation index for April and is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth). ECRI is not saying that this indicator in negative territory is a sign of economic contraction:

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index unchanged at 134.2. The growth rate rises to 0.5% from -0.1%. To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The March update (reported in April) shows the rate of economic growth is now slowing.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 101.1 from a revised March 100.2 reading, first reported as 100.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"With the USFIG moving up, underlying inflation pressures have risen a little," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February's economy's rate of growth (released in March) is essentially unchanged.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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