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posted on 01 May 2015

24 April 2015: ECRI's WLI Continues to Improve and Almost In Positive Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index continues to trend upward but has remained in negative territory for 28 weeks. According to ECRI, this index is forecasting slower economic growth in 1H2015 and now into 2H2015. However, the index is now nearly in positive territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth). ECRI is not saying that this indicator in negative territory is a sign of economic contraction:

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 134.2 from 133.1. The growth rate ticked up to -0.1% from -0.7%. To put the state of the economy in perspectiveclick here to read A Two-Speed Economy.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The March update (reported in April) shows the rate of economic growth is now slowing.

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Declines

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 100.5 from a revised February 102.1 reading.

"The USFIG remains below its summer highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still restrained."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February's economy's rate of growth (released in March) is essentially unchanged.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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