posted on 06 April 2015
March 2015 Conference Board Employment Index Declined But "Unlikely that Job Growth Will Fall Below 200,000 Jobs per Month"
Written by Steven Hansen
The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index - which forecasts employment for the next 6 months - declined. This is the problem with trend based indexes at turning points.
Econintersect has already forecast slowing jobs growth.
From the Conference Board:
To add context to this index, the following graph compares BLS non-farm payrolls, the Econintersect Employment Index, and The Conference Board ETI. Econintersect uses non-labor and mostly non-monetary economic pulse points in constructing its index, while The Conference Board uses mostly elements of employment data.
Comparing BLS Non-Farm .mployment YoY Improvement (blue line, left axis) with Econintersect Employment Index YoY Improvement (red line, left axis) and The Conference Board ETI YoY Improvement (yellow line, right axis)
The graph above offsets the Conference Board ETI by 5 months. Note that both the Conference Board and the Econintersect indices are showing an improving long term trend - however the Conference Board ETI trend line is slowing whilst the Econintersect trend line is not.
Caveats on the Employment Trends Index
According to the Conference Board:
Unfortunately many of these indices are not accurate in real time being subject to at times significant backward revision.
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