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posted on 03 April 2015

27 March 2015: ECRI's WLI Continues to Improve but Remains in Negative Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index continues to improve but has remained in negative territory for 24 weeks. According to ECRI, this index is forecasting slower economic growth in 1H2015 and now into 2H2015. ECRI released their inflation gauge this week and is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth). ECRI is not saying that this indicator in negative territory is a sign of economic contraction:

U.S. WLI Increases

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 132.6 from 131.5. The growth rate rose to -2.5% from -3.3%.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The February update (reported in March) shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last six months:

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Declines

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 100.5 from a revised February 102.1 reading.

"The USFIG remains below its summer highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still restrained."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February's economy's rate of growth (released in March) is essentially unchanged.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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