posted on 01 April 2015
Written by Steven Hansen
The headlines say construction spending declined this month - the data is volatile and backward revisions distort the picture. However, the rate of growth looking at the unadjusted rolling averages improved this month following a persistent decline in the rate of growth for the previous 12 months. This month private construction improved which has been the drag on new construction growth.
The backward revision this month again were moderate and mixed.
Unadjusted Construction Spending - Three Month Rolling Average Compared to the Rolling Average One Year Ago
Construction spending (unadjusted data) was declining year-over-year for 48 straight months until November 2011. That was almost four years of headwinds for GDP.
Indexed and Seasonally Adjusted Total Construction Spending (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted (red line)
This month's headline statement from US Census:
Unadjusted Total Construction Spending Year-Over-Year (blue line) and Month-over-Month (red line) Change
Unadjusted Private Construction Spending Year-Over-Year (blue line) and Month-over-Month (red line) Change
Unadjusted Public Construction Spending Year-Over-Year (blue line) and Month-over-Month (red line) Change
Private construction had been fueling construction growth - however now it is not as the rate of growth of private construction has moderated.
Public construction is up 2.0% year-over-year (up 2.6% year-to-date) - all numbers are unadjusted. Private construction is up 3.5% year-over-year (up 1.7% year-to-date) - all numbers are unadjusted. Construction spending would have to increase by more than 45% to equal the average for 2006, 2007 and 2008. The sector is in a deep depression.
Caveats on the Use of Construction Spending Data
Although the data in this series is revised for several months after issuing, the revision is generally minor. This series is produced by sampling - and the methodology varies by sector being sampled.
The headline data is seasonally adjusted. Econintersect uses the raw unadjusted data.Econintersect determines the month-over-month change by subtracting the current month's year-over-year change from the previous month's year-over-year change. This is the best of the bad options available to determine month-over-month trends - as the preferred methodology would be to use multi-year data (but the New Normal effects and the Great Recession distort historical data).
The data set for construction spending is not inflation adjusted. Econintersect adjusts using the BLS Producers Price Index - subindex New Construction (PCUBNEW-BNEW). However in the inflation adjusted graph in this post, FRED does not have this series - andEconintersect has used Producer Price Index: Finished Goods Less Energy (PPIFLE), Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted which has similar characteristics.
Construction (which historically is an major economic driver) is a literal shadow of its former self. Its contribution to GDP is down $400 billion from its peak level in 2006. The main driver of construction spending is the private sector. Here is the historical breakdown. The graph below uses US Census seasonally adjusted data.
Obvious from the above graph that public spending on construction is falling off, while private spending is slightly trending up. The overall effect is that construction spending is near the same place it was in early 2010.
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