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posted on 27 March 2015

20 March 2015: ECRI's WLI Again Improves but Continues in Negative Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index again improved but has remained in negative territory for 23 weeks. According to ECRI, this index is forecasting slower economic growth in 1H2015 and now into 2H2015.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth). ECRI is not saying that this indicator in negative territory is a sign of economic contraction:

US Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 131.6 from 131.2. The growth rate increased to -3.2% from -3.6%.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The February update (reported in March) shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last six months:

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 102.0 from a revised January 101.9 reading, first reported as 102.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG remains below its summer highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still restrained."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February's economy's rate of growth (released in March) is essentially unchanged.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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