posted on 23 March 2015
January 2015 Coincident Indicators Show Unchanged Rate of Economic Growth - But February Is Showing Some Slowing
The above graph shows the index value for the US Coincident Index including January 2015 data (released today). A comparison of US Coincident Index, Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, Conference Board's Coincident Index, ECRI's USCI (U.S. Coincident Index), and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) coincident indicators follows.
Economic indicators that coincide with economic movements are coincident indicators. Coincident indicators by definition do not provide a forward economic view. However, trends are valid until they are no longer valid, making the trend lines on the coincident indicators a forward forecasting tool. Econintersect's analysis of the coincident indices is that:
In general for January 2015 - there is no indication of economic slowdown in the coincident indices. However, both the CFNAI (released today) and ECRI's coincident index are showing economic slowing in February.
Excerpt from Philly Fed Report for the United States Coincident Index
[click graph below to enlarge]
z philly coincident.PNG
The changes shown in the table below are unchanged from the previous month except the 1 year change which was 3.5% last month.
The Philly Fed produces this real time coincident indictor report based on six underlying indicators:
However, the vertical lines on the chart above indicate the amount of indicators used to develop this forecast.
This means the accuracy of this index is reduced in real time. Per the Philly Fed:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying (seasonally adjusted) economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data. Both the ADS index and this web page are updated as data on the index's underlying components are released.
Conference Board's Coincident Index (red line):
ECRI's USCI (U.S. Coincident Index):
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
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