FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.

posted on 12 March 2015

Import and Export Price Year-over-Year Deflation Accelerates in February 2015 Even With Increase in Fuel Prices.

Written by Steven Hansen

Global trade prices are continuing to deflate. Import prices are down 9.4% from a year ago, while export prices are down 5.9% from a year ago. Of course oil prices were up 6.5% this month, but agricultural prices fell 2%.

  • with import prices up 0.4% month-over-month, down 9.4% year-over-year;
  • and export prices down 0.1% month-over-month, down 5.9% year-over-year..
  • the markets were expecting:
Consensus Range Consensus Actual
Export Prices - M/M change -0.8 % to 0.5 % -0.1% -0.1%
Import Prices - M/M change -1.0 % to 0.9 % +0.2% +0.4%

There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export / import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

All Imports: Import prices advanced 0.4 percent in February, the first monthly rise since a 0.3-percent increase in June 2014, and the largest 1-month advance since the index rose 0.5 percent in March 2014. In February, an upturn in fuel prices more than offset declining nonfuel prices. Despite the February increase, import prices fell 9.4 percent over the past 12 months, the largest year-over-year decrease since the index fell 12.0 percent between September 2008 and September 2009.

All Exports: U.S. export prices edged down 0.1 percent in February, led by lower agricultural prices which more than offset rising nonagricultural prices. The price index for overall exports has not recorded a monthly advance since the index increased 0.1 percent in July 2014. Overall export prices also fell for the year ended in February, declining 5.9 percent, the largest 12-month drop since the index decreased 6.2 percent in August 2009.

How moderate the price increases have been over the past year is obvious from the graphic below.

Month-over-Month Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

The biggest mover of import and export prices are oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).

Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)

Export / Import prices are the first inflation numbers reported each month.

Caveats on the Use of the Export / Import Price Index

Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.

Related Posts:

Old Analysis Blog

New Analysis Blog

All posts on Prices All posts on Prices

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing

Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.

You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

Econintersect Economic Releases


Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF

The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.

Take a look at what is going on inside of
Main Home
Analysis Blog
From Money Controlling People to People Controlling Money
Rising Tide Does Not Lift All Ships
News Blog
Infographic Of The Day: The Most Popular Jobs In A Decade
Early And Late Cycle Verdicts Are Baseless
The Surprising Divergence Of Employment And Capacity Utilization
The Slump In Undocumented Immigration To The United States
U.S. Productivity Growth Flowing Downstream
Your Light Bulbs Could Be Playing Havoc With Your Health - Here's Why
Mentions Of Trump And Clinton In Hip Hop Lyrics
Salary Is The Most Important Job Criterion
Can Switch Replicate Nintendos Past Success
The Numbers Behind The Zumwalt
Docking A Huge Cruise Ship Is More Complicated Than You Think
New Seasonal Outlook Updates from NOAA and JAMSTEC - Let's Compare Them.
Infographic Of The Day: Driving Into A Battery Powered Future
Investing Blog
FinTech Is Taking A Bite Out Of Banks
Options Early Assignment - Should You Worry?
Opinion Blog
The Beer Goggles Stock Market
US 2016 Election: Will US-China Relations Change
Precious Metals Blog
Preparing For Post-Election Social Unrest
Live Markets
21Oct2016 Market Close: Major US Indexes Close Flat On Low Volume, Crude Prices Resume Climb, US Dollar Stabilizes In Mid 98 Handle, Yes, Most Investors Are Worried Which Way This Market Will Go
Amazon Books & More

.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

Crowdfunding ....



Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved