posted on 09 March 2015
Written by Steven Hansen
The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index - which forecasts employment for the next 6 months - again strengthened. The index has been growing for over one year - but the rate of increase slowed from the previous months..
The Conference Board believes future good employment growth will likely continue in the coming months - and Econintersect concurs that relatively good employment growth will continue.
From the Conference Board:
To add context to this index, the following graph compares BLS non-farm payrolls, the Econintersect Employment Index, and The Conference Board ETI. Econintersect uses non-labor and mostly non-monetary economic pulse points in constructing its index, while The Conference Board uses mostly elements of employment data.
Comparing BLS Non-Farm .mployment YoY Improvement (blue line, left axis) with Econintersect Employment Index YoY Improvement (red line, left axis) and The Conference Board ETI YoY Improvement (yellow line, right axis)
The graph above offsets the Conference Board ETI by 5 months. Note that both the Conference Board and the Econintersect indices are showing an improving long term trend - however the Conference Board ETI trend line is slowing whilst the Econintersect trend line is not.
Caveats on the Employment Trends Index
According to the Conference Board:
Unfortunately many of these indices are not accurate in real time being subject to at times significant backward revision.
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