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posted on 06 March 2015

27 February 2015: ECRI's WLI Essentially Unchanged and Remains in Negative Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index was essentially unchanged but has remained in negative territory for 20 weeks. According to ECRI, this index is forecasting slower economic growth in 1H2015 and now into 2H2015. ECRI released their inflation index this past week and is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth). ECRI is not saying that this indicator in negative territory is a sign of economic contraction:

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged



The U.S. Weekly Leading Index was virtually unchanged at -4.6%. The growth rate ticked down to -4.6% from -4.5%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The January update (reported in February) shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last six months:

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 102.0 from a revised January 101.9 reading, first reported as 102.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG remains below its summer highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still restrained."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The January's economy's rate of growth (released in February) improved and shows moderate growth.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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