econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 04 March 2015

February 2015 ISM Services Index Declines Marginally But Remains in Expansion

Written by Steven Hansen

The ISM non-manufacturing (aka ISM Services) index continues its growth cycle, and improved marginally from 56.7 to 56.9 (above 50 signals expansion). Important internals weakened but still remained in expansion

This was within the range of market forecasts of 55.5 to 57.5 (consensus 56.5).

For comparison, the Market PMI Services Index was released this morning also - and it strengthened instead of weakening. Here is the analysis from Bloomberg:

Released On 3/4/2015 9:45:00 AM For Feb, 2015
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Level 54.2 56.8 54.0 to 57.0 57.1

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Markit PMI services flash index for February rose to a 4-month high of 57.0. This compares with 54.2 in final January at 54.0 in the January flash. Hiring was up for month in the sample as were backlogs.

There are two sub-indexes in the NMI which have good correlations to the economy - the Business Activity Index and the New Orders Index - and both have good track records in spotting an incipient recession. The Business Activity Index improved and the New Orders Index marginally improved - with both remaining in territories associated with moderate expansion.

This index and its associated sub-indices are fairly volatile - and one needs to step back from the data and view this index over longer periods than a single month.

The Business Activity sub-index declined 2.1 points and now is at 59.4.

ISM Services - Business Activity Sub-Index

The New Orders Index declined 2.8 and is currently at 56.7.

ISM Services - New Orders Sub-Index

The complete ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing survey table is below.

Econintersect does give serious consideration to this survey as the service sector accounts for 80% of the economy and 90% of employment. However, this an opinion survey and is not hard data.

From the ISM report:

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in February for the 61st consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

The NMI registered 56.9 percent in February, 0.2 percentage point higher than the January reading of 56.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 59.4 percent, which is 2.1 percentage points lower than the January reading of 61.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 67th consecutive month at a slower rate. The New Orders Index registered 56.7 percent, 2.8 percentage points lower than the reading of 59.5 percent registered in January. The Employment Index increased 4.8 percentage points to 56.4 percent from the January reading of 51.6 percent and indicates growth for the 12th consecutive month. The Prices Index increased 4.2 percentage points from the January reading of 45.5 percent to 49.7 percent, indicating prices contracted in February for the third consecutive month. According to the NMI, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in February. Comments from respondents have increased in regards to the affects of the reduction in fuel costs and the impact of the West Coast port labor issues on the continuity of supply. Overall, supply managers feel mostly positive about the direction of the economy.

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 14 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in February - listed in order - are: Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Information. The four industries reporting contraction in February are: Mining; Construction; Other Services; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

Caveats on the use of ISM Non-Manufacturing Index:

This is a survey, a quantification of opinion. However, as pointed out above, certain elements of this survey have good to excellent correlation to the economy for as long as it has been in existence. Surveys lead hard data by weeks to months, and can provide early insight into changing conditions.

The main ISM non-manufacturing index (NMI) is so new that it does not have enough data history to have reliable certainty about how it correlates to the economy. Again, two sub-indices (business activity and new orders) do have good correlation for the limited history available.

No survey is accurate in projecting employment - and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index is no exception. Although there are some general correlation in trends if you stand far enough back from this graph, month-to-month movements have not correlated well with the BLS Service Sector Employment data.

ISM Services Employment Sub-Index vs BLS Non-Farm Services Employment

Related Posts:

Old Analysis Blog

New Analysis Blog

All Articles on Institute of Supply Management Surveys All Articles on Institute of Supply Management Surveys


>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.






Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Why Long-Run Theories of Profit and Accumulation Fall Short
Brexit - Who Wins and Loses
News Blog
What Is The Informal Labor Market?
Changes In Labor Force Participation
Infographic Of The Day: 10 Habits Of Millionaires For Building Wealth
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mostly Up, China Down, Dollar And Oil Up, Gold Down, European Stocks Open Up, 2nd SCOTUS Seat For Trump?, SCOTUS Gets Gerrymander, UK Has Huge Gender Pay Gaps, And More
Most Read Articles Last Week Ending 22 April
GOP Healthcare Plan Would Cost The Poor And Old The Most
These Amazing Creative Animals Show Why Humans Are The Most Innovative Species Of All
Earnings And Economic Reports: Week Starting 24 April 2017
What Americans Think About Climate Change
What We Read Today 23 April 2017 - Special Public Edition
What We Read Today 23 April 2017
What Would A Civilization 1 Billion Years Older Than Us Be Like
Understanding The Downward Trend In Labor Income Shares
Investing Blog
Market And Sector Analysis 23 April 2017
Markets Rally As Expected
Opinion Blog
America's Gilded Age 2: On The Rocks
What Does The Strong Q1 Growth Mean For China?
Precious Metals Blog
Three Gold Plays For The New Era Of Chaos
Live Markets
21Apr2017 Market Close: US Stocks Slipped Moderately, WTI Crude Slips On Renewed Concerns Of Increasing U.S. Production, Industrial Businesses' Cash Outflows Concern Investors
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government































 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved