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posted on 27 February 2015

20 February 2015: ECRI's WLI Marginally Declines and Remains in Negative Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index was marginally declined and has remained in negative territory for 19 weeks. According to ECRI, this index is forecasting slower economic growth in 1H2015 and now into 2H2015.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth). ECRI is not saying that this indicator in negative territory is a sign of economic contraction:

U.S. WLI Edges Up



The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 130.6 from 130.4. The growth rate ticked down to -4.5% from -4.2%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The January update (reported in February) shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last six months:

U.S. Coincident Index:

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Falls

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 102.5 from a revised December 104.0 reading, first reported as 104.1, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"Having peaked in the summer, the USFIG has been falling faster lately," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures continue to fade."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The January's economy's rate of growth (released in February) improved and shows moderate growth.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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