econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 09 February 2015

Consumers Report Stable Inflation Expectations, Lower Spending Growth Expectations

from the New York Fed

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released results from its January 2015 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which provides insight into Americans' views on inflation, prices, the labor market and household finance. Median consumer inflation expectations were largely unchanged at both the one-year and the three-year ahead horizons at 2.9 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively. Median household spending growth expectations retreated significantly from the last month. The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if one were to lose one's current job) continued to increase.

Additional results from January 2015 include:

Inflation

  • Median inflation expectations remained largely stable at both the one-year and the three-year ahead horizons at 2.9 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively. At the one-year horizon, the 75th percentile of responses declined slightly, reaching its lowest level since the start of the series in June 2013.
  • Median home price change expectations decreased to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent in December 2014, the lowest point since the start of the series.
  • Median one-year ahead gasoline price change expectations rebounded to 4.7 percent, reversing the sharp decline observed since October 2014 and returning to the levels observed in summer 2014.


Labor Market

  • Median earnings growth expectations were 2.5 percent in January, unchanged from December 2014 and still at the high end of the range observed since the start of the series.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one's job remained unchanged from December 2014 at 14.5 percent, its lowest level since July 2013.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (conditional on losing one's job today) increased to 53.3 percent from 51 percent in December 2014, reaching its highest level since the start of the series.


Household Finance

  • Median household income growth expectations declined slightly to 2.7 percent from 2.9 percent in December 2014. The 25th and 75th percentiles also retreated slightly. The decline in median expectations was concentrated among the lower- and middle-income households, as well as respondents with high school or less, or some college.
  • Median household spending expectations declined sharply to 4.1 percent from 4.8 percent in December 2014, reaching its lowest level since the start of the series. The 25th and 75th percentiles of responses also declined. The decline was common across all demographic groups and U.S. regions, except for the North-East.
  • The expected change in credit availability a year from now or compared to a year ago exhibited little change from December 2014. The proportion of respondents expecting credit availability much or somewhat harder a year from now rose to 33 percent from 31 percent in December 2014, but is still at the low end of the (31 percent - 47 percent) range observed since the start of the series.

About the Survey of Consumer Expectations

The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans' views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty in expectations for the main outcomes of interest. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education and numeracy.

The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.

The survey is conducted on our behalf by The Demand Institute, a non-profit organization jointly operated by The Conference Board and Nielsen.


>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<




Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.






Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Why Long-Run Theories of Profit and Accumulation Fall Short
Brexit - Who Wins and Loses
News Blog
2016 The Worst Year So Far For Syria's Children
Macron And Le Pen To Face Off For French Presidency - But She Won't Be Pleased With First Round Result
Best Selling Hard Soda Brands In The U.S.
What We Read Today 25 April 2017
April 2017 Chemical Activity Barometer Suggests Continued Growth Through 2017
Final April 2017 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Slips but Remains Strong
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Again Improves In April 2017.
March 2017 Headline New Home Sales Improve and Above Expectations
Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index February 2017 Shows 5.9 % Year-over-Year Growth
Infographic Of The Day: Comparison Of Population Density
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks, Dollar, And Oil All Up, Gold Down, China Stocks Diverge, Bankrupt Retail, Courtiers To Palace Wed., US Starts Trade War With Canada Over Lumber, And More
April 24, 2017 Weather and Climate Report - All Too Normal!
The Countries With The Fastest Internet
Investing Blog
How Broken Is The Market?
Investing.com Technical Summary 24 April 2017
Opinion Blog
The Euro Is Stronger Than You Think
Reducing Inequality Could Be A Matter Of Survival
Precious Metals Blog
A New Age For Gold
Live Markets
25Apr2017 Market Close: Nasdaq Pushes Above 6,000; Dow Broke 21k Before Pulling Back; Dollar And Gold Slide While Oil Advances
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government































 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved